With the 2024 election on the horizon, we're analyzing its impact on the housing market. Here's what you need to know.
Election Years Bring a Temporary Slowdown
Home sales often slow in the fall, but BTIG data reveals a more pronounced drop in election years during the month leading up to Election Day (see graph). This indicates that elections can temporarily intensify the usual seasonal slowdown.
Election uncertainty causes many to hit the pause button on big decisions. This is a well-established pattern, particularly in housing. A recent Redfin survey underscores this, with 23% of first-time buyers saying they'll wait until after the election to purchase. This suggests uncertainty is causing nearly a quarter of these buyers to delay.
Home Sales Bounce Back After the Election
The silver lining? Election delays are temporary. History shows home sales bounce back strong after the vote, even increasing 82% of the time the following year:
The post-election boost in home sales can be attributed to renewed confidence. With the uncertainty of the election resolved, buyers and sellers have a clearer picture of the future. This typically leads to a surge in sales as people feel more comfortable making major real estate decisions.
What To Expect in 2025
If history repeats itself, get ready for a busier housing market next year:
This aligns with the typical post-election rebound pattern. While the market may seem slow now, it's a temporary dip, not a lasting trend. As before, once election uncertainty fades, buyers and sellers will re-enter the market.
Bottom Line
Election years may bring short-term housing market slowdowns, but history shows this is temporary. Those aren't lost sales, just postponed. With home sales typically spiking post-election and forecasts looking strong for 2025, waiting might mean missing an opportunity. The market is expected to accelerate soon.
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